Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 96% on Sep 22, 2026

OpenMove

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 53.5¢ to 95.8¢ (+42.3 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Bloomberg Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match53.5¢
+5m61.5¢
+30m91¢
+1h95.8¢
1h move+42.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesBloomberg Reporter96%match
New: Trump says that American officials including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian officials here on the sidelines of the UN. Trump said they had a good meeting; Witkoff was reluctant to discuss it but said “I feel very good right now.”
YesCNN Reporter96%match
The president said that US officials including Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner met with Iranian officials here on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. • • Trump called it a good meeting

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 97% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES97¢
NO4¢

Vol$202K

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Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.