Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? Odds fell to 0% on Sep 1, 2026

OpenMove

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? On , the market’s odds fell from 10.5¢ to 0.1¢ (-10.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from zerohedge.

How did the odds move?

At match10.5¢
+5m7.5¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.1¢
1h move-10.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yeszerohedge94%match
US Mfg PMI August Final 53.4, Exp. 53.9, Last 53.2

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 18% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES18¢
NO82¢

Vol$1K

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Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.