Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Odds jumped to 22% on Sep 12, 2026

OpenMove

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 11.5¢ to 22¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iran State News Agency.

How did the odds move?

At match11.5¢
+5m11.5¢
+30m11.5¢
+1h22¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesIran State News Agency95%match
Reza Nasri stated on IRNA's "Diplomacy Table" program: The next US deal should not reduce the value of Iran's diplomatic achievement / Revival of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is in Iran's interest If you compare America's goals and demands before and during the war with what was signed at the level of the US President in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, you will see how different they were. They were discussing changing the political system before the war, but in clause one or two of the memorandum of understanding, they accepted the non-commitment to interfere in Iran's internal affairs. They were discussing Iran's destabilizing behavior in the region, but they accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon. They were discussing that Iran should not have missiles; Not only did they not mention missiles in the memorandum, but when a reporter asked Mr. Trump, “So what about the missiles?” he said that it would be very unfair to ask Iran not to have missiles, while others have them. If we consider the economic discussion, they said that we should impose crippling sanctions and maximum sanctions, but in the memorandum they created a reconstruction fund. This document is Iran’s success in the war. It is not that we think it is not worth getting a document from a superpower that claims not to have lost a war that all independent American experts and many people in the world consider to be Iran’s success. @IRNA_1313

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 12% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES12¢
NO89¢

Vol$230K

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Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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