Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Odds jumped to 92% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? On , the market’s odds jumped from 82.6¢ to 92.2¢ (+9.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match82.6¢
+5m82.7¢
+30m81.6¢
+1h92.2¢
+24h99.4¢
1h move+9.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 81.6¢ → 92.7¢+11.1 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com98%match
Live: Haley Stevens is trailing statewide an hour after polls closed in most of the state and she holds just a two-percentage-point lead in Oakland County, where both she and Abdul El-Sayed grew up and which she represents in Congress. Sixty percent of the expected vote in the county has been reported, but the outstanding ballots are largely Election Day votes — a bloc that has favored El-Sayed across the state.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$48K

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Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.