Will Graham Platner drop out by July 6? Odds fell to 12% on Jul 6, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 6? On , the market’s odds fell from 25.5¢ to 11.5¢ (-14 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from ft.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match25.5¢
+5m22.5¢
+30m11.5¢
+1h11.5¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-14 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 6, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 24¢ → 11.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 23.5¢ → 11.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 24.5¢ → 8.5¢-16 ptsafter a signal from bbc.co.uk
  • 19.5¢ → 3¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from cbseveningnews
  • 12.5¢ → 3.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from DC Examiner Reporter
  • 11.5¢ → 3.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter

What moved the odds?

Noft.com99%match
Platner to ‘reflect’ on Senate campaign after sexual assault allegations

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$18K

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Will Graham Platner drop out by July 6? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.