Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%? Odds jumped to 37% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 22.1¢ to 36.6¢ (+14.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Politico Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match22.1¢
+5m22.1¢
+30m22.1¢
+1h36.6¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move+14.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 36.6¢ → 0.2¢-36.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 36.6¢ → 0.2¢-36.4 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 9.5¢ → 0.2¢-9.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 9.5¢ → 0.2¢-9.3 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 9.5¢ → 0.2¢-9.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 9.5¢ → 0.2¢-9.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

NoPolitico Reporter96%match
Gov. Tony Evers in an interview Friday declined to commit to endorsing or campaigning with Francesca Hong, should she win. • • “I want to have a chance to take a breath, and once that’s in a position, we’ll see,” he said. “But I anticipate that David will win."

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$5K

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Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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