Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? Odds jumped to 46% on Aug 17, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? On , the market’s odds jumped from 27¢ to 46¢ (+19 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabytv. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match27¢
+5m31.5¢
+30m42.5¢
+1h46¢
+24h36.5¢
1h move+19 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesalarabytv94%match
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels on Saturday.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$28K

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Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.