How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?<25
ResolvedOutcome: No$28Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Hormuz ship crossings hover in single digits, data shows
Live: Ship traffic dropped significantly last week in Strait of Hormuz
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
As tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, new Kepler data shows that only six commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, August 16, down from a 10-day average of 11. Kepler said no crude oil or LNG tankers were recorded among the vessels. Iran International's Marzieh Hosseini reports on the latest reports on ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, with only 6 vessels passing through on Monday.
Marine Traffic announced that maritime traffic in the two vital waterways of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea had mixed trends last week. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5 percent from 118 to 95. Daily traffic also decreased from a peak of 19 on August 10 to just three on August 15.
MarineTraffic: • • Maritime traffic in recent days has split into two routes at two key critical points. • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5%, falling to 95 crossings from 118 previously. Daily crossings also dropped from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. • • Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route, while 44 were on unidentified routes. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased by 6.7%, reaching 254 crossings.
There is a greater tendency to use the Iranian route in the Strait of Hormuz Marine Traffic:
Marine traffic has been divided into two routes in recent days at two key critical points. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 19.5 percent to 95, down from 118 previously, and daily traffic fell from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route and 44 were unspecified. Bab al-Mandab crossings increased by 6.7 percent to 254. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Kepler data: 5 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and traffic came to a complete standstill on Sunday. #AlArabiya_Business
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels on Saturday.
Kepler: On Saturday, only five ships carrying essential goods passed through the Strait of Hormuz; no ships passed through on Sunday This is while at the beginning of last week, 31 ships had passed through the Strait / Selection
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels last Saturday.
Complete stoppage of ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz Data from Kepler, a company that tracks ship movements, shows that their movement in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased sharply. Last Saturday, only five cargo ships carrying essential goods passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and no ships passed through the area the day before; while at the beginning of last week, 31 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Where does the news lean?
19YES9NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Related markets
See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.