Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? Odds fell to 73% on Jul 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? On , the market’s odds fell from 85¢ to 73¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintlbrk. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match85¢
+5m85.1¢
+30m85.5¢
+1h73¢
+24h86.2¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 81.7¢ → 63.4¢-18.3 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
  • 81.1¢ → 64.7¢-16.4 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 78.4¢ → 92.1¢+13.7 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com

What moved the odds?

Yesiranintlbrk99%match
Reuters reported that about 20 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours with the coordination of the US military, but ship tracking data indicates a decrease in maritime traffic.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$139K

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Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.