How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?<150
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$139Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Kepler: Fewer ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid US and Iranian attacks #Arabic_Business
Fewer vessels travel through Hormuz as US, Iran continue strikes
Live: Strait of Hormuz crossings plummet again
Live: Shipping through Strait of Hormuz continues to drop
Only six ships transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, as shipping traffic plummeted to its lowest level in weeks due to the recent escalation.
Live: Over 50% fewer ships attempted to cross Strait of Hormuz than the previous week, data firm says
Kpler data: Only 6 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday #Arabic_Business
Reuters - Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell on Sunday to its lowest level in several weeks, amid renewed tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran and attacks on ships in the Middle East, raising concerns about safety. Ship tracking data from Kpler showed that six vessels passed through the strait on Sunday, the lowest number on any day in five weeks.
Kepler announced that only six ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the lowest number in five weeks.
Reuters reported that about 20 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours with the coordination of the US military, but ship tracking data indicates a decrease in maritime traffic.
CNN Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level.
CNN Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level.
Bloomberg: - Hormuz Street Monitor data: Near-total paralysis continues through the Strait of Hormuz, with the waterway still classified as "closed" and only 22 vessels transiting in the last 24 hours. - Windward: Shipping traffic in Hormuz plummeted overnight, with only 6 vessels passing through. - Departures have almost completely stopped, with only one vessel leaving.
Windward Ship Tracking Company: Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased for the third consecutive night Only 6 ships have passed through the waterway in 12 hours, while a few days ago, between 18 and 22 ships would normally pass through.
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains muted
Strait of Hormuz crossings fall as operators remain cautious • • Confirmed vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell for a second consecutive day on 9 July, dropping to 22 crossings from 30 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Activity remained largely low-risk, with commercial movements only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favour the Iranian route, while the Omani route recorded just one crossing, reinforcing the lasting impact of recent security incidents near Oman. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 7 July, but renewed US-Iran military escalation continues to weigh on confidence that diplomatic efforts will deliver near-term stability.
Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped sharply overnight. Just 6 vessels crossed between 18:00 UTC July 9 and 06:00 UTC July 10, down from a normalized 18-22 earlier this month. That's the third straight overnight drop, now near a quarter of early July levels. • • Outbound sailings have nearly stopped, just 1 vessel last night, versus 15-21 on July 5-7. Dark transits are also climbing, accounting for nearly 40% of all traffic, the highest in six days. • • Windward is watching the Strait in real time.
Live: Ship crossings in Strait of Hormuz have ‘grounded to a halt’
Where does the news lean?
35YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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