Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? Odds jumped to 84% on Jul 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? On , the market’s odds jumped from 73.8¢ to 83.6¢ (+9.8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from iranintlbrk. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match73.8¢
+5m75.3¢
+30m80¢
+1h83.6¢
+24h90.5¢
1h move+9.8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 75.5¢ → 83.8¢+8.3 ptsafter a signal from iranintl

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesiranintlbrk98%match
Axios reported, citing a US official, that in the past 24 hours, about 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with the coordination of the US military, and several other ships have passed through the waterway without the coordination of the US military.
Yesiranintl98%match
Axios reported, citing a US official, that in the past 24 hours, about 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with the coordination of the US military, and several other ships have passed through the waterway without the coordination of the US military.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$139K

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Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.