Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Odds jumped to 39% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? On , the market’s odds jumped from 1.7¢ to 39.1¢ (+37.4 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 17-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match1.7¢
+5m2.9¢
+30m53.5¢
+1h39.1¢
+24h98.7¢
1h move+37.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 18.3¢ → 40.2¢+22 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 61.5¢ → 40.6¢-20.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 59.5¢ → 43.6¢-15.8 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 60.5¢ → 44.7¢-15.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 60.5¢ → 40.1¢-20.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 53.5¢ → 40.1¢-13.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 53¢ → 41.7¢-11.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 52.7¢ → 41.7¢-11 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 53.1¢ → 78¢+25 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 38.1¢ → 78¢+40 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 38.8¢ → 82.5¢+43.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 39.1¢ → 82.5¢+43.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Part of a 17-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 99 (39.8%) • Francesca Hong (D): 85 (34.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 19 (7.6%) • Sara Rodriguez (D): 19 (7.6%) • Mandela Barnes (D): 14 (5.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 2% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 4,970 (41.7%) • Francesca Hong (D): 4,191 (35.1%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 4% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 12,144 (44.4%) • Francesca Hong (D): 8,922 (32.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 2,385 (8.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 7% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 23,655 (41.6%) • Francesca Hong (D): 19,573 (34.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 4,902 (8.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 14% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 46,081 (41.4%) • Francesca Hong (D): 40,673 (36.5%) • Kelda Roys (D): 9,679 (8.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 24% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 77,923 (42.3%) • Francesca Hong (D): 72,126 (39.1%) • Kelda Roys (D): 13,902 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 27% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 88,825 (42.0%) • Francesca Hong (D): 82,361 (39.0%) • Kelda Roys (D): 15,764 (7.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 31% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 101,157 (41.6%) • Francesca Hong (D): 95,411 (39.2%) • Kelda Roys (D): 18,887 (7.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 40% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary • • David Crowley (D): 130,549 (41.9%) • Francesca Hong (D): 123,404 (39.6%) • Kelda Roys (D): 22,833 (7.3%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$30K

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Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Waukesha County Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.