Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%? Odds jumped to 69% on Aug 26, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 25¢ to 68.5¢ (+43.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) is projected to win the South Carolina Republican primary runoff to replace her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), on the November ballot, according to Decision Desk HQ. Lindsey Graham, 71, died unexpectedly in early July after serving in the Senate for more than two decades — and after winning…. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match25¢
+5m28.5¢
+30m55.5¢
+1h68.5¢
+24h98¢
1h move+43.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralSen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) is projected to win the South Carolina Republican primary runoff to replace her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), on the November ballot, according to Decision Desk HQ. Lindsey Graham, 71, died unexpectedly in early July after serving in the Senate for more than two decades — and after winning…97%match
Graham wins GOP nod in South Carolina Senate primary runoff for late brother’s seat

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 99%, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$63K

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Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.