Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by at least 12%? Odds fell to 16% on Aug 19, 2026

OpenMove

Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by at least 12%? On , the market’s odds fell from 36.6¢ to 16.3¢ (-20.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match36.6¢
+5m37¢
+30m36.3¢
+1h16.3¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-20.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 37¢ → 14¢-22.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 37¢ → 14¢-22.9 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk

What moved the odds?

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Alaska US Senate Primary • • Mary Peltola (D): 53,817 (46.8%) • Dan Sullivan (R): 50,988 (44.4%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$442

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Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by at least 12%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.