Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by 9–12%? Odds fell to 6% on Aug 19, 2026

OpenMove

Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by 9–12%? On , the market’s odds fell from 19.5¢ to 5.9¢ (-13.6 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match19.5¢
+5m19.5¢
+30m19.4¢
+1h5.9¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-13.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 19.5¢ → 5.9¢-13.6 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
Decision Desk HQ projects Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the Alaska US Senate Primary • • #DecisionMade: 2:02 AM EDT
Neutrallivesquawk98%match
Decision Desk HQ projects Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. wins the Alaska US Senate Primary • • #DecisionMade: 2:02 AM EDT

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$387

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Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by 9–12%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.