Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Odds fell to 0% on Jul 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? On , the market’s odds fell from 8.8¢ to 0.1¢ (-8.7 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from mainichi.jp. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match8.8¢
+5m0.5¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.1¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-8.7 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 8.8¢ → 0.1¢-8.7 ptsafter a signal from dbnews

What moved the odds?

Nomainichi.jp99%match
China's GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, but the high-tech industry performed well, though the growth slowed.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$64K

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Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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