Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%? Odds fell to 2% on Aug 19, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%? On , the market’s odds fell from 10.8¢ to 2.4¢ (-8.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match10.8¢
+5m10.8¢
+30m4.3¢
+1h2.4¢
+24h0.7¢
1h move-8.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 10.8¢ → 2.4¢-8.4 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com97%match
Live: Byron Donalds took the stage at his primary night event to celebrate his win. “We have won a massive victory.” He said Republican rivals Paul Renner and James Fishback called to congratulate him and urged him to beat David Jolly. “Tonight we are one united Republican Party,” Donalds said.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$4K

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Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.