Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%? Odds fell to 5% on Aug 18, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%? On , the market’s odds fell from 13.4¢ to 4.8¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match13.4¢
+5m37.8¢
+30m37.6¢
+1h4.8¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Nonytimes.com98%match
Live: With a little more than 50 percent of the vote reported in Florida, Byron Donalds is ahead by a wide margin in the Republican primary for governor. Donalds had wide leads in all of the recent pre-election polling and was endorsed by President Trump.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$9K

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Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.