Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%? Odds fell to 1% on Aug 18, 2026

OpenMove

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%? On , the market’s odds fell from 24.5¢ to 0.9¢ (-23.6 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match24.5¢
+5m24.5¢
+30m19.5¢
+1h0.9¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-23.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 18, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 24.5¢ → 0.9¢-23.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 24.5¢ → 0.9¢-23.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 23.5¢ → 0.6¢-22.9 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 23.5¢ → 0.6¢-22.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 13% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 109,394 (49.6%) • Jay Collins (R): 59,967 (27.2%) • Paul Renner (R): 18,436 (8.4%) • James Fishback (R): 15,477 (7.0%) • Bobby Williams (R): 7,519 (3.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 44% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 377,752 (51.5%) • Jay Collins (R): 182,887 (24.9%) • Paul Renner (R): 61,485 (8.4%) • James Fishback (R): 54,063 (7.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 53% in): Florida Governor Republican Primary • • Byron Donalds (R): 452,930 (50.7%) • Jay Collins (R): 221,068 (24.7%) • Paul Renner (R): 75,993 (8.5%) • James Fishback (R): 73,862 (8.3%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$15K

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Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.