Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Odds fell to 22% on Jul 17, 2026
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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 32.5¢ to 22.4¢ (-10.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg.
How did the odds move?
32.5¢
32.5¢
33.8¢
22.4¢
27.2¢
-10.1 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesWalter Bloomberg95%match
APPLE CLOSES IN ON NVIDIA • • $AAPL is on the verge of reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable company, with a market value nearing $4.9T as $NVDA slips. • • The race highlights a shift in the AI trade. • • Investors are increasingly betting on Apple’s ability to monetize AI through its ecosystem, services, and hardware—not just AI infrastructure. • • The AI rally is also broadening, with memory chipmakers like $MU and $SKHY attracting growing investor interest.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
$858K
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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Largest Company end of December 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.