Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? Odds jumped to 90% on Aug 19, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 77.5¢ to 90¢ (+12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match77.5¢
+5m77.5¢
+30m77.5¢
+1h90¢
+24h94¢
1h move+12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 58% in): California US House 14 Special Election General • • Aisha Wahab (D): 33,399 (51.0%) • Melissa Hernandez (D): 32,043 (49.0%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$112K

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Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for CA-14 Special Election Winner? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.