Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? Odds fell to 6% on Sep 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? On , the market’s odds fell from 22¢ to 6¢ (-16 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match22¢
+30m14.5¢
+1h6¢
1h move-16 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoReuters94%match
Far-Right AfD Seen at 16% in Berlin State Election - Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$12K

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Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.