Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? Odds jumped to 57% on Aug 5, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 20¢ to 57.5¢ (+37.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 20¢ → 38.5¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 13.5¢ → 33.5¢+20 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 39¢ → 6.3¢-32.7 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
- 44.5¢ → 6.4¢-38.1 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 28.5¢ → 4.9¢-23.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 24.5¢ → 1.7¢-22.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 31¢ → 2.5¢-28.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.