Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryEl-Sayed 10–15%
ResolvedOutcome: No$53Kas of
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After a race decided by just 1%, Egyptian-American physician Abdulrahman El-Sayed (Abdul) secured the Democratic Party's nomination for the Senate from Michigan, defeating his AIPAC-backed opponent, Representative Haley Stevens, and moving closer to becoming the first Muslim senator in the history of Congress.
Abdul-Sayed, a left-wing politician, physician, and former health official, won the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate seat. He defeated moderate Congresswoman Haley Stevens by less than 15,000 votes and will face Republican candidate Mike Rogers, an ally of Donald Trump, in the final election. If he wins, he will become the first Muslim to serve in the U.S. Senate. Abdul-Sayed had emphasized economic reforms and the implementation of a universal health care plan during his campaign. Reported by Marzieh Hosseini, Iran International correspondent
Progresista Abdul El-Sayed gana primarias demócratas en Michigan y disputará escaño clave al Senado • • El médico de 41 años venció por menos de 15.000 votos a la moderada Haley Stevens y se enfrentará al republicano Mike Rogers en noviembre en un estado decisivo para el control de la Cámara Alta. • • ¿Logrará el ala progresista demócrata inclinar la balanza del Senado en un estado históricamente disputado? • •
Live: While El-Sayed’s victory was narrow, it indicates serious Democratic discontent with the political establishment that backed Representative Haley Stevens and is a warning sign for the party overall.
EL-SAYED WINS. • • The AP has now called the MI Senate primary for former public health director Abdul El-Sayed. • • He won by just a point. • • W/ 99% reporting: • El-Sayed 48.5% • Stevens 47.5% • • McMorrow, who dropped out, got 4%, enough to have decided the race. • • This is a narrow but major progressive victory (alongside MI07) in a purple state.
Michigan is still counting. • • Far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a razor-thin lead over Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat — a race many expected progressives to win decisively. • • With Michigan's largest county still tallying votes, El-Sayed is clinging to a one-point advantage in what has become a key test for the Democratic Party. • • The contest is being closely watched as the party's progressive wing looks to prove its message can resonate beyond deep-blue strongholds and into the political battlegrounds of Middle America. • • @richedson has the latest.
Republicans Eye Michigan Flip as El-Sayed Barely Edges Stevens in Dem Primary After Massive Polling Miss, Weak Showing With Black Voters
DDHQ Race Update (est. 99% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 739,310 • (48.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 723,430 • (47.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 61,120 • (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
The battle is still close. The picture is already pretty clear: Al Sayed is expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for the Senate election from Michigan. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primaries for the Senate candidate from Michigan: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan agree with Al Sayed's anti-Israel attitude. So maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party? For now.
The battle is still close, but it seems that the chance of a reversal no longer exists. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate candidate: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan are on board with Al Sayed's anti-Israel approach. And maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party. Yet. [in reply to: The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (supporter of Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest estimate, Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update! ]
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 709,609 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 684,482 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 58,357 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 700,566 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 673,364 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 57,419 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 694,487 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 668,850 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,955 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 689,121 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 663,207 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,343 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,240 (48.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 661,480 (47.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,308 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 89% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,096 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 655,591 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,894 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 674,071 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 644,431 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,023 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 667,902 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 642,612 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,974 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 663,329 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 635,258 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,315 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 653,438 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 628,460 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,725 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 647,616 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 621,736 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,156 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 84% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 639,643 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 615,767 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 52,300 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 632,011 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 603,952 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 51,341(4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 628,775 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 600,348 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,973 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevens 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevsn 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 624,237 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 595,334 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,495 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 618,675 (49.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 587,295 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 49,816 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 604,726 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 575,703 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,864 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 600,241 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 565,113 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,072 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 597,965 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 563,041 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,890 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 77% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 591,793 (49.6%) • Haley Stevens (D): 554,421 (46.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,209 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 75% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 581,500 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 542,570 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 46,136 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,411 • (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,799 • (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,502 • (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,172 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,547 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,484 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 70% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 540,096 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 498,339 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 42,386 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 68% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 527,754 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 487,371 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 40,904 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 517,664 (49.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 479,279 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 39,990 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 473,387 (50.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 436,473 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 35,550 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (pro-Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest assessment. There is talk that Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update!
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 417,975 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 401,487 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 32,601 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 44% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 339,476 (50.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 310,618 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 25,079 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens are locked in a tight battle for the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. El-Sayed, who led by nearly 30 percentage points earlier in the night, has seen his advantage shrink to less than four percentage points. He is winning in-person votes — including both early and Election Day ballots — by roughly 25 percentage points, while Stevens is carrying mail-in ballots by a similar margin.
Where does the news lean?
7YES119NO81neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
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Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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