Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? Odds fell to 13% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? On , the market’s odds fell from 25.3¢ to 13.3¢ (-11.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match25.3¢
+5m26.4¢
+30m26¢
+1h13.3¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-11.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 26¢ → 1.1¢-24.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 30.6¢ → 2.3¢-28.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 4,106 (55.4%) • Haley Stevens (D): 2,895 (39.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 407 (5.5%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$10K

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Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.