Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryEl-Sayed 20–25%
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Decision Desk HQ has a roundup of all the primary action that happened this week. • • The headline race was the #MISen Democratic primary, narrowly won by Abdul El-Sayed. He won by keeping it close in the Detroit area & running up big margins in progressive counties.
New @insidepolitics, in chair top of NoonET • - Latest on Abdul El-Sayed's narrow win and what it means for November • — What last night says about batttle for House • -My interview with Will Lawrence, progressive who won primary in critical MI-7 swing district • -Max Miller scandal and latest fallout • -Chuck Edwards drops out • -Todd Blanche hangs by thread
EL-SAYED WINS. • • The AP has now called the MI Senate primary for former public health director Abdul El-Sayed. • • He won by just a point. • • W/ 99% reporting: • El-Sayed 48.5% • Stevens 47.5% • • McMorrow, who dropped out, got 4%, enough to have decided the race. • • This is a narrow but major progressive victory (alongside MI07) in a purple state.
Strong @playbookdc • • Tuesday night was most notable for all the things it wasn’t: A double-digit win for El-Sayed. A resounding verdict in the Democratic civil war. Even a conclusive test of whether electability had been redefined in 2026. • • What it was: Yet another sign that the insurgent left, like in Maine, “performed best among wealthier and highly educated voters, while moderate Democrats still perform better in lower-income and less educated areas,” POLITICO’s Jessica Piper writes. It was also a sign of a break between two unsettled factions of the Democratic Party: Black voters and the left.
Republicans Eye Michigan Flip as El-Sayed Barely Edges Stevens in Dem Primary After Massive Polling Miss, Weak Showing With Black Voters
Live: Michigan Senate Democratic primary race remains too close to call as El-Sayed holds narrow lead – US politics live
The battle is still close. The picture is already pretty clear: Al Sayed is expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for the Senate election from Michigan. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primaries for the Senate candidate from Michigan: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan agree with Al Sayed's anti-Israel attitude. So maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party? For now.
The battle is still close, but it seems that the chance of a reversal no longer exists. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate candidate: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan are on board with Al Sayed's anti-Israel approach. And maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party. Yet. [in reply to: The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (supporter of Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest estimate, Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update! ]
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 663,329 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 635,258 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,315 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 653,438 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 628,460 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,725 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 647,616 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 621,736 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,156 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 632,011 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 603,952 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 51,341(4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 628,775 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 600,348 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,973 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevens 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevsn 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 624,237 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 595,334 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,495 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 618,675 (49.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 587,295 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 49,816 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 600,241 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 565,113 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,072 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 75% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 581,500 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 542,570 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 46,136 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 70% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 540,096 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 498,339 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 42,386 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 517,664 (49.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 479,279 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 39,990 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 473,387 (50.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 436,473 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 35,550 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (pro-Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest assessment. There is talk that Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update!
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 417,975 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 401,487 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 32,601 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
The polls predicted an easy victory for the anti-Israel candidate Abdul-Sayed - but right now the gap is very close [in reply to: Michigan race: 45% of votes counted - and the battle over who will be the Democratic candidate in the Senate election is very close]
DDHQ Race Update (est. 44% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 339,476 (50.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 310,618 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 25,079 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 42% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 325,492 (50.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 298,172 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 23,867 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens are locked in a tight battle for the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. El-Sayed, who led by nearly 30 percentage points earlier in the night, has seen his advantage shrink to less than four percentage points. He is winning in-person votes — including both early and Election Day ballots — by roughly 25 percentage points, while Stevens is carrying mail-in ballots by a similar margin.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 35% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 269,768 (50.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 245,190 (45.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 18,905 (3.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 27% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 213,549 (50.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 191,083 (45.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 15,128 (3.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 23% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 182,241 (51.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 160,944 (45.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 12,266 (3.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
Where does the news lean?
7YES71NO56neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
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Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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