Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? Odds fell to 1% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? On , the market’s odds fell from 12.7¢ to 1.4¢ (-11.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match12.7¢
+5m12.6¢
+30m12.3¢
+1h1.4¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-11.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 12.3¢ → 0.4¢-11.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 1¢ → 49.2¢+48.2 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 42.2¢ → 12.5¢-29.7 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 50.2¢ → 6.4¢-43.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 49.4¢ → 8¢-41.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 48.8¢ → 13¢-35.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 30¢ → 11.3¢-18.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 30¢ → 11.6¢-18.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 23¢ → 11.3¢-11.6 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 8.5¢ → 17.7¢+9.2 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 17.7¢ → 8.5¢-9.2 ptsafter a signal from Galatz Reporter
  • 12.3¢ → 3.3¢-8.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Polls have closed in most of Michigan. The winner of the state’s Democratic Senate primary will defend a seat that is considered key to Democrats’ chances of winning back the Senate in the midterms. The candidates, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, and Representative Haley Stevens, a centrist, traded attacks through the final hours of the race.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$61K

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Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.