Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryEl-Sayed 5–10%
ResolvedOutcome: No$61Kas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Democrat progressive pick narrowly wins Michigan Senate nomination
EL-SAYED WINS. • • The AP has now called the MI Senate primary for former public health director Abdul El-Sayed. • • He won by just a point. • • W/ 99% reporting: • El-Sayed 48.5% • Stevens 47.5% • • McMorrow, who dropped out, got 4%, enough to have decided the race. • • This is a narrow but major progressive victory (alongside MI07) in a purple state.
The battle is still close. The picture is already pretty clear: Al Sayed is expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for the Senate election from Michigan. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primaries for the Senate candidate from Michigan: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan agree with Al Sayed's anti-Israel attitude. So maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party? For now.
The battle is still close, but it seems that the chance of a reversal no longer exists. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate candidate: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan are on board with Al Sayed's anti-Israel approach. And maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party. Yet. [in reply to: The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (supporter of Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest estimate, Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update! ]
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 700,566 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 673,364 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 57,419 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 663,329 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 635,258 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,315 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 653,438 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 628,460 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,725 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 632,011 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 603,952 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 51,341(4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 628,775 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 600,348 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,973 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevens 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevsn 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 517,664 (49.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 479,279 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 39,990 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 473,387 (50.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 436,473 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 35,550 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 25% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 199,050 (51.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 177,109 (45.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 13,850 (3.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 23% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 182,241 (51.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 160,944 (45.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 12,266 (3.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 21% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 166,669 (51.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 144,532 (44.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 10,959 (3.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
2 new polls in the #MISen Democratic primary found Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by more than 10 points. • • Ahead of the Aug. 4 primary, El-Sayed now leads Stevens 51%-42% in Decision Desk HQ's polling average. The winner will face Mike Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee.
Where does the news lean?
29YES48NO81neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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