US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Odds jumped to 38% on Sep 26, 2026
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US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? On , the market’s odds jumped from 29.5¢ to 38¢ (+8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl.
How did the odds move?
29.5¢
30¢
39¢
38¢
+8.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Noiranintl97%match
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that Trump has rejected the Islamic Republic's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told his aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. Under Tehran's proposal, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and nuclear talks would resume in exchange for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Deshkian Juma told CBS News on Friday that if the US accepts the Islamic Republic's seven-day proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, its implementation process would begin immediately and the Iranian government's military forces would adhere to it.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO63¢
$154K
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US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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