US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Odds fell to 45% on Jul 13, 2026
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US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 55.5¢ to 45¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Al Arabiya.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 55.5¢ → 45¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
- 55.5¢ → 45¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from Iraq State News Agency (INA)
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from OSINT
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from Al Jazeera Mubasher
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from Saudi State-Run Al Ekhbariya TV
- 55.5¢ → 44.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya_bn
What moved the odds?
Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.