US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Odds jumped to 32% on Nov 3, 2026

On Tuesday, November 1, Majid Al-Ansari, a spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, said that his country's government hopes that the Islamic Republic and the United States will reach a temporary agreement, while referring to the plans presented by mediators, including Doha. This comes hours after a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran and the United States still have a "long way to go" to reach an agreement to end the war. At the same time as the two countries were holding indirect talks, the United States launched attacks on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, which American officials later described as "defensive." In the past week, Qatar has increased its efforts to mediate between Tehran and Washington, and has not stopped these efforts even when it has been attacked by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Currently, according to Majid Al-Ansari, the two sides "are committed to continuing the negotiation process, and we [Qatar] are facilitating the exchange of proposals between the two. "We will." @VahidHeadline Reuters on Tuesday, November 1, quoted "a senior Iranian official" as saying that "despite increased diplomatic efforts to prevent a possible return to active fighting after the US midterm elections, Iran and the United States are far from reaching an agreement to end the war." The unnamed "senior official" said after Qatari representatives visited Tehran on Monday night and the clash between CENTCOM and the Islamic Republic's armed forces in the Strait of Hormuz and the bombing of Qeshm, "Mediators are working hard to reduce the gaps between Tehran and Washington." The same source warned that "if the US wants to open the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's conditions must be met." He added that nuclear talks can only begin then and that Tehran will not accept Washington's "excessive demands." @VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline