Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds fell to 16% on Aug 26, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 24¢ to 16¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya.

How did the odds move?

At match24¢
+5m20.5¢
+30m23.5¢
+1h16¢
+24h14¢
1h move-8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 26, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 26.5¢ → 17¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
  • 26.5¢ → 17¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yesalarabiya95%match
The Revolutionary Guard announces an agreement with Oman to share control of the Strait of Hormuz waters ====== The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced an agreement to share control of the Strait of Hormuz waters with the Sultanate of Oman. The Revolutionary Guard accused the United States of obstructing negotiations with Oman, which led to the delay in the agreement. The agreement between Iran and Oman includes the two parties' shares of the revenues from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES4¢
NO96¢

Vol$596K

Follow this market

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.