Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds fell to 13% on Aug 25, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 21¢ to 12.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg.

How did the odds move?

At match21¢
+5m17¢
+30m18¢
+1h12.5¢
+24h16¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 25, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 22¢ → 12.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 34.5¢ → 12.5¢-22 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 28.5¢ → 12.5¢-16 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
  • 27.5¢ → 12.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 27.5¢ → 12.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 27.5¢ → 12.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official SNN
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
  • 27¢ → 12.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby

What moved the odds?

NoWalter Bloomberg95%match
OMAN, IRAN PROPOSE TEMPORARY HORMUZ SHIPPING CORRIDOR • • Oman and Iran discussed a phased framework to restore safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Oman’s Foreign Ministry. • • The proposal includes a temporary joint shipping corridor and a joint operation to clear mines from the Strait. • • Technical talks would continue toward a permanent navigation corridor, traffic-management arrangements and security cooperation, while both sides called for coordination with Gulf states.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES4¢
NO96¢

Vol$595K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.