Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds jumped to 56% on Aug 15, 2026
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 37¢ to 56.5¢ (+19.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 42¢ → 51¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
- 39.5¢ → 50.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from iranintl
- 40¢ → 50.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
- 40¢ → 50¢+10 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 40¢ → 50¢+10 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
- 54.5¢ → 46¢-8.5 ptsafter a signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed
- 56.5¢ → 46.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.