Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds fell to 28% on Aug 10, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? On , the market’s odds fell from 38.5¢ to 28¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabytv. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match38.5¢
+5m38.5¢
+30m32¢
+1h28¢
+24h26.5¢
1h move-10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 38.5¢ → 26.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv

What moved the odds?

Neutralalarabytv94%match
Araghchi speaks of progress... Where have the negotiations between Oman and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz reached?

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$258K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.