Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds fell to 43% on Aug 9, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? On , the market’s odds fell from 52¢ to 43¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match52¢
+5m52¢
+30m45¢
+1h43¢
+24h33¢
1h move-9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralalarabiya94%match
This comes as Araqchi confirmed that his country and Oman are "very close" to reaching an agreement on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$258K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.