US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds fell to 36% on Oct 12, 2026
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 45.5¢ to 35.5¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Russian Media.
How did the odds move?
45.5¢
33.5¢
35.5¢
35.5¢
-10 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 34.5¢ → 24.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from cnbc.com
- 34.5¢ → 25.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from cnbc
- 34.5¢ → 25¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran State News Agency
What moved the odds?
NeutralRussian Media96%match
The conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and White House Secretary Donald Trump significantly changed the situation around Ukraine. The United States not only temporarily eased restrictions on Russian fuel but also increased pressure on Kyiv, once again demanding an end to attacks on Russian refineries. The diesel deal demonstrated that Moscow and Washington can develop relations in other areas beyond the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The ministry does not rule out the possibility that European countries will try to interfere with the implementation of the new Russian-American agreements through Kyiv. The European Parliament also does not expect Brussels to support the US course. At the same time, experts believe the deal itself is primarily politically significant: the declared fuel volumes are not large enough to significantly impact the American market.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 25% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES25¢
NO75¢
$140K
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.