US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds jumped to 49% on Oct 11, 2026
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 41¢ to 49¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
41¢
41¢
42¢
49¢
+8 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 41¢ → 50¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 41.5¢ → 51¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from vesti.ru
- 41.5¢ → 51.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from Bloomberg Reporter
- 42.5¢ → 53¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
What moved the odds?
NeutralReuters94%match
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Russia Diesel Deal Good for Americans -Fox News
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 58% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES58¢
NO42¢
$106K
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.