US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds fell to 52% on Oct 10, 2026
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 66.5¢ to 51.5¢ (-15 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Russian state TV.
How did the odds move?
66.5¢
66.5¢
57¢
51.5¢
-15 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 53.5¢ → 42.5¢-11 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv
What moved the odds?
YesRussian state TV97%match
The Russian-US deal to supply diesel fuel from Russia to the global market demonstrates the naivety of EU politicians, said Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. He noted that as a reward for its hateful military policy, sanctions, and "moralizing," the EU will receive expensive diesel fuel and a shortage of it, while Russia and the US will have cheap fuel. Earlier, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, stated that in response to the Russian-US agreement on diesel fuel supplies, the European Union will approve the largest package of sanctions against Russia since 2022. The day before, Putin and Trump held telephone talks. According to the American president, the parties agreed to deliver Russian diesel fuel in several stages - 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and another 1 million tons later.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 46% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES46¢
NO54¢
$65K
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US imports Russian diesel by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.