US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? Odds fell to 70% on Aug 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 82¢ to 69.5¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 6-source news cluster, from almayadeenlive. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match82¢
+5m81.5¢
+30m77.5¢
+1h69.5¢
+24h51.5¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 81.5¢ → 68¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily

What moved the odds?

Part of a 6-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesalmayadeenlive96%match
United States: Reuters, quoting a US official: We will lift the blockade on Iranian ports as soon as an agreement is announced to resume unhindered commercial shipping.
YesAl Jazeera Mubasher95%match
Reuters, quoting a US official: We will lift the blockade on Iranian ports as soon as an agreement is announced to resume unhindered commercial shipping.
NeutralIraq State News Agency (INA)95%match
Reuters, quoting a US official: We will lift the blockade on Iranian ports as soon as an agreement is announced to resume commercial shipping.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$1.5M

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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