Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds jumped to 89% on Nov 2, 2026

OpenMove

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 77.5¢ to 88.5¢ (+11 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 6-source news cluster, from iranintlbrk.

How did the odds move?

At match77.5¢
+5m84.5¢
+30m89¢
+1h88.5¢
1h move+11 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 6-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesiranintlbrk95%match
Reuters news agency reported, citing a senior American official, that the United States will hold trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, and November 10-11.
YesSky News Arabia94%match
Reuters, citing a US official: The United States will hold trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 90% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES90¢
NO10¢

Vol$598K

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Russia x Ukraine peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.