Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual? Odds jumped to 100% on Oct 9, 2026
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Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual? On , the market’s odds jumped from 72.5¢ to 100¢ (+27.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from bbc.co.uk.
How did the odds move?
72.5¢
74¢
70¢
100¢
+27.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 74¢ → 100¢+26 ptsafter a signal from afp
- 71.5¢ → 100¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from npr.org
- 71.5¢ → 100¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from mirror.co.uk
- 71.5¢ → 100¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
- 71¢ → 100¢+29 ptsafter a signal from news.tv-asahi.co.jp
- 71¢ → 100¢+29 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 70¢ → 100¢+30 ptsafter a signal from bbc.co.uk
- 71.5¢ → 100¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
What moved the odds?
Neutralbbc.co.uk98%match
Live: Nobel Peace Prize winner to be announced
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 100% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
$24K
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Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.