Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026? Odds fell to 41% on Sep 28, 2026
Open
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 54.5¢ to 40.5¢ (-14 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl.
How did the odds move?
54.5¢
54.5¢
49.5¢
40.5¢
-14 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Yesiranintl97%match
Iranian media reported that Abbas Araqchi and the Iranian delegation will meet with US negotiators in New York in the coming hours. Reuters reported that the mediators will hold separate talks with representatives from Tehran and Washington on Monday or Tuesday. The focus of these talks is expected to be a revised version of the seven-day proposal that the Islamic Republic presented on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Earlier, Donald Trump had said that the talks would resume this week, emphasizing that the military option was still on the table. Interview with Samira Qaraei, Iran International correspondent
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO63¢
$2K
Follow this market
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.