Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) — odds fell to 65% on Sep 28, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) — on , the market’s odds fell from 79¢ to 64.5¢ (-14.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match79¢
+5m74.5¢
+30m73.5¢
+1h64.5¢
+24h36.5¢
1h move-14.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesIran's judiciary-run Mizan94%match
Mediation of mediators between Iran and the US Reuters, citing an informed source, claimed: Qatari mediators are expected to hold separate talks with the US and Iran today or tomorrow. The talks will focus on a revised version of the seven-day proposal presented by Iran on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$306K

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Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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