Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Odds fell to 59% on Jul 31, 2026

OpenMove

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 76¢ to 59¢ (-17 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Belarus State News Agency.

How did the odds move?

At match76¢
+5m75¢
+30m67¢
+1h59¢
+24h53¢
1h move-17 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 75¢ → 59.5¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk

What moved the odds?

YesBelarus State News Agency94%match
Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the complete disarmament of Hamas forces. He noted that Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza after the disarmament of Hamas forces. Implementation of the disarmament agreement is reported to begin in the coming weeks.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES30¢
NO70¢

Vol$58K

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Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.