Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? Odds jumped to 61% on Jul 30, 2026

OpenMove

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 33¢ to 60.5¢ (+27.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Kan Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match33¢
+5m33.5¢
+30m33.5¢
+1h60.5¢
+24h64.5¢
1h move+27.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 30, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 33.5¢ → 65.5¢+32 ptsafter a signal from Channel 12 (N12)
  • 33.5¢ → 65.5¢+32 ptsafter a signal from n12news
  • 40.5¢ → 77¢+36.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabytv

What moved the odds?

YesKan Reporter95%match
Palestinian sources tell the "Filestine Al-Youm" website, which is close to Islamic Jihad, that an agreement regarding the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is expected to be announced today. The sources noted that the upcoming announcement includes agreement on a full fifteen-point "roadmap" that links the issue of weapons of the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip (the terrorist organizations) to a complete withdrawal, a cessation of assassinations, and the implementation of commitments related to the first phase. The sources emphasized that the agreement stipulates that the heavy weapons of the Palestinian factions must be stored and not handed over.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES30¢
NO70¢

Vol$58K

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Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.