Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds fell to 34% on Sep 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? On , the market’s odds fell from 58¢ to 34¢ (-24 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Kan Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match58¢
+5m61¢
+30m52.5¢
+1h34¢
+24h54¢
1h move-24 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 38.5¢ → 25.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
  • 38.5¢ → 54.5¢+16 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Mehr
  • 34¢ → 56¢+22 ptsafter a signal from iranintl
  • 34¢ → 55¢+21 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
  • 34¢ → 55¢+21 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Tasnim
  • 36.5¢ → 55¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
  • 56¢ → 40.5¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 55.5¢ → 43.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
  • 51¢ → 38.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Journalist
  • 50¢ → 38.5¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily

What moved the odds?

NeutralKan Reporter94%match
On Monday, Gulf states are scheduled to meet with Iran in Oman to find a solution to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Bahrain has announced that it will not attend or take part in any meeting in which Iran participates.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$829K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.