Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds jumped to 37% on Sep 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? On , the market’s odds jumped from 24.5¢ to 37¢ (+12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from almayadeenlive. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match24.5¢
+5m31.5¢
+30m27¢
+1h37¢
+24h32¢
1h move+12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 24.5¢ → 37¢+12.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Tasnim
  • 37¢ → 27.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Iraq State News Agency (INA)
  • 37¢ → 27.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily

What moved the odds?

Neutralalmayadeenlive95%match
Iran: My presence: Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing and witnessing significant progress, having reached their final stages and potentially leading to securing a maritime route.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$829K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.