Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds fell to 45% on Aug 26, 2026

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? On , the market’s odds fell from 54¢ to 44.5¢ (-9.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from mainichi.jp.

How did the odds move?

At match54¢
+5m57¢
+30m45.5¢
+1h44.5¢
+24h59¢
1h move-9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 26, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 55¢ → 45¢-10 ptsafter a signal from foxnews.com
  • 64¢ → 56¢-8 ptsafter a signal from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com
  • 56.5¢ → 48.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia

What moved the odds?

Neutralmainichi.jp96%match
Iran and Oman hold talks over management of the Strait of Hormuz; plan to implement joint projects.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 37% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES37¢
NO63¢

Vol$266K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.