Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds fell to 48% on Aug 25, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? On , the market’s odds fell from 56¢ to 47.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 8-source news cluster, from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match56¢
+5m46¢
+30m45¢
+1h47.5¢
+24h51¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 25, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 55.5¢ → 47.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 55.5¢ → 47.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official SNN
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
  • 57¢ → 47.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
  • 56.5¢ → 47.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
  • 56.5¢ → 44.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby

What moved the odds?

Part of a 8-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesReuters96%match
Proposed Framework Between Oman and Iran Includes Establishment of a Joint Temporary Shipping Lane Through the Strait of Hormuz and an Agreement to Implement a Joint Project to Clear Strait of Mines -Joint Statement
YesAl Araby94%match
Joint Iranian-Omani statement: The proposed framework includes an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines.
NeutralLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed95%match
Joint Iranian-Omani statement: The foreign ministers of Iran and Oman held constructive consultations that focused on the importance of resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in a manner that preserves the sovereignty and rights of both countries.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES38¢
NO63¢

Vol$266K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.